Morning Forex Technical

EUR/USD's bullish impetus has vanished

'The market will continue to fret this week over Greek-related headlines' - JP Morgan (based on WSJ)

Industry outlook

The bullish momentum of EUR/USD has vanished and the focus is now on a support at 1.3162. In case this level is breached, the pair is then likely to slide down to 1.3025/00. From above EUR/USD is capped by resistances at 1.3320 and 1.3435.

Traders' sentiment

The portion of long positions on EUR/USD has slightly grown, reaching 44% of the total amount of trades on the pair. Accordingly, shorts are losing positions, currently forming 56% of the market.

Long position opened

The break of the short-term resistance line 1.3276 would pave the way for the pair to rise up to 1.3351. The clearance of the second daily resistance level would establish a new target for traders at 1.3411.

Short position opened

Major FX traders expect the price to test the initial support level at 1.3141. The breakout of this line will pave the way for the price to test S2 at 1.3081 and S3 at 1.3006

EUR/JPY eyes 104.30

'After the Greek vote and the weaker [Japanese] GDP, there was some selling of the yen' - Forecast Pte (based on Bloomberg

Industry outlook

After penetrating resistance at 102.55/60 EUR/JPY is headed toward 104.30. In the longer term we may observe advancement up to 107.65 (200 day ma). In the meantime, dips should not be able to extend below 100.55/35 (20 day ma).

Traders' sentiment

The difference between the amounts of bullish and bearish trades has widened since the last report. At the moment 57% of trades are long and 43% of them are short.

Long position opened

Largest brokers set a new long position target as a break of 103.08 is an encouraging bullish sign en route to 103.68. If the uptrend remains, the third target for intraday trading will be 104.15.

Short position opened

The immediate support line is at 102.01. Should the price step even lower, it will encounter subsequent levels at 101.54 and 100.94, where recovery might start

GBP/USD to be capped by 1.5930

'If the BoE had been feeling really grim they would have done 75 billion. It's inherent in the more moderate approach that they were more optimistic about the outlook' - BNY (based on Reuters)

Industry outlook

A tough resistance zone at 1.5930 which is formed by 200 day ma did not allow further gains for the Cable, sending it down to 1.5730. Subsequent supports are located at 1.5660 and 1.5595 (55 day ma).

Traders' sentiment

Traders' sentiment on GBP/USD remains largely unchanged, as the overwhelming majority of market participants (76%) stay short on the pair. Accordingly, only 24% of traders expect the Sterling to appreciate relative to the American Dollar.

Long position opened

The price might rebound from the first resistance level at 1.5830, so major dealers are planning to close some of their long positions near this level. Subsequent goals for bulls are 1.5899 and 1.5949.

Short position opened

Major FX traders expect the price to test the initial support level at 1.5711. The breakout of this line will pave the way for the price to test S2 at 1.5661 and S3 at 1.5592.

USD/JPY to carry on moving northward

'Regarding the question whether I am satisfied after we stopped at ¥78.20…I believe that it was effective to a certain extent' - Jun Azumi, Japanese Finance Minister (based on WSJ)

Industry outlook

USD/JPY is expected to approach a key resistance area at 78.10/30 (200 day ma) with a possibility of overcoming it. Dips should by halted by support lines situated at 77.33 (55 day ma) and 77.10.

Traders' sentiment

Despite the fact that the US Dollar is the most popular currency and the Japanese Yen is the least popular one, traders' sentiment is mixed on USD/JPY currency pair itself. The present ratio between longs and shorts is 49% to 51%.

Long position opened

FX market participants have put their take profit orders at the key resistance points of intraday trading. Some of the investors might close their deals at 77.77 and 77.93. The highest level is at 78.05.

Short position opened

Major dealers are planning to partially close their short positions if the pair touches upon the first support level at 77.49. However, if the bearish impetus proves to be strong enough, some of the positions could be squared off at S2 of 77.37 and at S3 of 77.21.

USD/CHF to stay above 0.9080/65

'Three years is an awfully long time for the Fed to be pledging to keep rates near zero' - Comerica Bank (based on WSJ)

Industry outlook

Support at 0.9080/65 continues to underpin the pair, increasing the chance of USD/CHF commencing recovering. A close above 0.9250/60 will imply additional gains up to 0.9317 (55 day ma). Nonetheless, the near-term outlook is still neutral.

Traders' sentiment

The vast majority of traders (83%) have acquired the Greenback against the Swiss Franc, making traders' sentiment on USD/CHF bullish to a large extent.

Long position opened

Bullish investors should pay attention to the key resistance levels for intraday trading. R1 is situated at 0.9205, followed by R2 and R3 at 0.9252 and 0.9303, respectively.

Short position opened

Bearish traders will pay attention to the key support levels to close their deals. The forecast targets are 0.9107, 0.9056 and 0.9009.

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Popular Posts