Morning Forex Fundamental

EUR

The Greek [austerity] offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan' - Bertrand Benoit, a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry

Greece rejects more austerity

Impact High

Leaders of Greece's governing coalition rejected German demands for additional austerity measures hours after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told legislators in Berlin that the nation was missing deficit targets.

'What has particularly bothered me is the humiliation of the country,' said George Karatzaferis, a leader of one of the three parties supporting Prime Minister Lucas Papademos. 'Clearly Greece can't and shouldn't do without the European Union but it could do without the German boot.'

Schaeuble said that current austerity measures would leave Greece's debt as high as 136 per cent of gross domestic product by 2020, said two on condition of anonymity.

'The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan,' said Bertrand Benoit, a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry.

USD

'We will see a widening trade deficit this year as imports grow faster than exports' - Jay Bryson, a senior global economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC

December trade deficit widens to $48.8 billion, consumer sentiment deteriorates in February

Impact High

U.S. trade deficit widened to a six-month high of $48.8 billion in December, up by $1.7 billion compared to November, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Friday.

'Growth in consumer and business demand is pretty good and that is helping to pull in imports,' said Jay Bryson, a senior global economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina.

'We will see a widening trade deficit this year as imports grow faster than exports.'

In a separate report, the University of Michigan said consumers turned less optimistic about the economy in February. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan overall index of consumer sentiment declined to 72.5 in February from 75.0 in January.

'The personal financial situation of consumers remained dreary,' survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.

GBP

'[Consumer inflation] is going to continue to head downwards at a rapid pace' - David Tinsley, an economist at BNP Paribas

U.K. output prices rose 0.5% in January

Impact: High

U.K. output prices rose more than forecast in January, led by higher alcohol, petroleum products and clothing costs. The price of goods rose 0.5 per cent from December, when it declined 0.2 per cent, said the Office for National Statistics on Friday.

'There's probably a bit of upside news here as far as the consumer-price inflation figures are concerned next week,' said David Tinsley, an economist at BNP Paribas in London.

'Still, its relatively small news compared to the base effects that are falling out of the index' and consumer inflation 'is going to continue to head downwards at a rapid pace.'

Scotia Capital economist Alan Clarke said the figures were 'on the high side of expectations.'

CHF

'Markets look overbought in the short term and it feels as though we need a break from the recent bull run' - Trung-Tin Nguyen, a hedge-fund manager at TTN AG

Swiss inflation eased in January, stocks declined on Friday

Impact: Medium

Swiss month-on-month inflation fell in January, said the Federal Statistical Office on Friday. Prices declined 0.4 per cent, after dropping 0.2 per cent in December.

Swiss stocks declined on Friday after Greek coalition leaders refused to support additional austerity measures.

The Swiss blue-chip index SMI, a measure of the largest and most actively traded companies, plummeted by 0.63%, or 38.97 points, to 6,130.66. The broader Swiss Performance Index fell 0.58%, or 32.30 points, to 5,562.23.

'Even though overall sentiment is still positive, negative noise out of Greece due to the delays to reach a deal ahead of the weekend have led to profit-taking.' said Trung-Tin Nguyen, a hedge-fund manager at TTN AG in Zurich. 'Markets look overbought in the short term and it feels as though we need a break from the recent bull run.'

JPY

'The biggest downside risk is the sovereign problems in Europe' - Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc.

BoJ is expected to refrain from monetary easing February 14

Impact Medium

The Bank of Japan February 14 is forecast to maintain the benchmark rate at near zero and keep its asset purchasing program at 55 trillion yen amid signs the global economy including the U.S. is picking up.

'The biggest downside risk is the sovereign problems in Europe,' said Mari Iwashita, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. Policy makers should 'save the card of additional accommodative policies for March or April,' the analyst said.

'The economy may have dipped into a contraction in the fourth quarter, but it would be temporary,' said Seiji Adachi, a senior economist at Deutsche Securities Inc. in Tokyo. 'There's no need to be overly pessimistic' as the global economy including the U.S. is gaining steam, Adachi said.

Europe

Greek political leaders February 9 reached a deal on a package of austerity measures needed to secure a second bailout from international lenders.

25 out of 27 EU member countries have agreed to the fiscal pact for stricter budget discipline January 31. The pact will impose quasi-automatic sanctions on countries that breach EU budget deficit limits.

Facing 'Bailout or Chaos,' Greek Parliament Starts Debate on Austerity Laws

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46358167

Greek lawmakers on Sunday began debating legislation introducing severe austerity measures necessary for the country to secure a euro130 billion ($171.46 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund and stave off bankruptcy.

Italy's Mario Monti makes the case for growth

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/italian-leader-makes-case-for-growth/2012/02/09/gIQAVLwS2Q_story.html

Italy's efforts to curb public debt will be for naught unless the nation's economy starts growing again, Prime Minister Mario Monti said Thursday in calling for Germany and other European nations to turn their focus to economic renewal..

USA

Ben Bernanke on February 8 reiterated the Federal Reserve's plan to keep borrowing costs near record lows until at least late 2014, despite rapid decline in unemployment rate to 8.3%.

Iranian oil embargo, triggered by the US, was approved by the EU January 23.

Bernanke urges action to heal housing markets

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/10/us-usa-fed-idUSTRE8111E720120210

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday issued a call to action to restore U.S. housing markets, saying depressed house prices and sales are a serious drag on the economic recovery..

Carry Trade Rallies Like '09 as Volatility Ebbs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-13/carry-trade-rallies-like-09-as-volatility-ebbs-while-headlines-blare-iran.html

In the $4 trillion-a-day currency market, traders calmed by a flood of central bank money are leaving safety for riskier bets against a background of Greece's potential default and threats of nuclear weapons in Iran

Asia & Pacific

The statistical data released by Chinese officials create mixed sentiment among investors. The FDI has risen to a record-high $116B, despite falling real estate data.

Japan has published first annual trade deficit since 1980 putting into question how long the country can rely on exports to serve a huge public debt.

Japan's GDP shrinks 2.3% in fourth quarter

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/12/business/japan-gdp/index.html?hpt=hp_bn1

Japan's economy shrank for the third time in four quarters between October and December, after floods in Thailand damaged production and a strong yen and subdued overseas demand hurt exports..

China policy reversal slaps real-estate shares Chinese property stocks fell

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-policy-reversal-slaps-real-estate-shares-2012-02-13

Monday, after reports that a city in eastern China wouldn't proceed with planned property-loosening measures announced last week

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