do you know who is amir williams so see this Article

do you know who is amir williams so see this Article

Amir Williams

Position:	Forward / Center
Height:	6-10
Weight:	210 lbs.
School:	Detroit Country Day School
Hometown:	Detroit, Michigan

Member of the 2010 USA U18 National Team that compiled a 5-0 record, captured the 2010 FIBA Americas U18 Championship gold medal and qualified the U.S. for the 2011 FIBA U19 World Championship.

High School Honors

• Selected to the Max Preps 2010 Junior All-America third team.
• Named 2010 all-state.

High School Notes

• Attends Detroit Country Day School (Mich.), where he averaged 15.0 ppg., 10.2 rpg., and 4.8 bpg. in aiding his team to the 2010 Michigan state championship and a 26-2 record.
• Helped Detroit Country Day to a 24-2 record and a second place finish in the state in 2008-09.
• In 2007-08 Detroit Country Day finished 21-5. 

Dollar Longs Capitulation Leaving Room To The Upside

Saxobank

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GBP/USD Attempts To Resume Uptrend

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ZIFX.com | Feb 13 12 08:58 GMT

GBP/USD Open 1.5775 High 1.5850 Low 1.5727 Close 1.5750

On Friday Pound/Dollar decreased with 120 pips. The Cable depreciated from 1.5850 to 1.5727 on Friday, in converse with the positive Interbank sentiment at over +43%, closing the week at 1.5750. Today the British Pound is making recovery attempts, with movements still within yesterday's range for the time being. On the 1 hour chart range trading is forming, while on the 3 hour chart the upward channel has slowed down. First resistance is Friday's peak at 1.5850. Break above it should extend the bullish movement further towards 1.5972. The nearest support level is Friday's bottom at 1.5727. Going bellow it should extend British Pound's reduction further down towards next downward objective 1.5600. There are no major economic events for UK today. Quotes are moving just above the 20 and 50 EMA on the 1 hour chart, indicating slim bullish pressure. The value of the RSI indicator is positive and inclining upwards, MACD is neutral and tranquil, while CCI has thinly crossed up the 100 line on the 1 hour chart, giving over all to light long signals.

Technical resistance levels: 1.5850 1.5972 1.6100
Technical support levels: 1.5727 1.5600 1.5467

 

ZIFX.com is managed by iFOREX Ltd. and it is in the business of teaching analysis of forex trends, and proposing potential trading signals - not recommendations. All statements and expressions are the opinion of the forex experts at ZIFX.com and are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Our opinions are subject to change without notice. We strongly advise clients to conduct thorough research relevant to decisions and verify facts from various independent sources. The staff at ZIFX.com is not to be held responsible for individual market positions, all trades that clients may take are based on their own final decisions. We do not accept any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever, that may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in the trading signals or in any accompanying chart analyses, whether communicated by word or message, typed or spoken by any of ZIFX.com employees.

ZIFX.com

European Market Update

Markets await key rate decisions from BOE and ECB; Eurogroup meeting unlikely to make any concrete decision on Greece today

(ID) Indonesia Central Bank cuts Reference Rate by 25bps to 5.75%; Not expected

(EU) ECB: €1.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.9B prior; €494.7B parked in deposit facility vs. €495.4B prior

(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Feb 3rd: $507.3B v $504.0B prior

(CH) Swiss Jan SECO Consumer Confidence: -19 v -22e

(FR) France Survey of Industrial Investments: Executives see 2012 manufacturing investment Y/Y: +7vs. +4% prior Oct survey

(NL) Netherlands Jan CPI M/M: -0.1 v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e

(NL) Netherlands Jan CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.5%e

(UK) Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -3.1%e

(UK) Dec Manufacturing Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.3%e

(UK) Dec Visible Trade Balance: -£7.1B v -£8.6Be; Total Trade Balance: -£1.1B v -£2.7Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£3.8B v -£5.0Be

(ZA) South Africa Dec Gold Production Y/Y: -8.2% v -4.5% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: +0.9% v -4.4% prior

UN Food Agricultural Organization (FAO) Jan Food Index M/M: 214 v 211 m/m

(GR) Greece Jan Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4% prior

(GR) Greece Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: -11.3% v -7.8% prior

(GR) Greece Nov Unemployment Rate: 20.9% v 18.2% prior (Record high)

Fixed Income:

(SE) Sweden sold SEK750M vs. SEK750M indicated in 0.25% I/L 2022 Bond, Avg yield 0.2900% v 0.3746% prior

(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF40B in 2015, 2017 and 2022 Bonds

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Notes/Observations

Still lacking a complete and final agreement out of Greece ahead of today's Eurogroup meeting

Ireland: Fin Min Noonan demands relief on Irish debt if ECB makes concessions on Greek debt.

Greek Nov Unemployment at record high of 20.9% with over 1 million unemployed

China inflation a bit higher than expected with RRR cut calls on hold at this time

Equities:

FTSE 100 +0.25% at 5890, DAX +0.70% at 6796, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3426, IBEX-35 +0.70% at 8905, FTSE MIB flat at 16,653, SMI -0.10% at 6151

European shares traded in positive territory ahead of ECB's and BoE's rate decision due later in the NY morning. Traders expect both banks to maintain an accommodative policy. Few analysts expect ECB to cut its interest rate from the 1% level, but amid the Greek turmoil, the central bank is expected to hint at future rate cuts. On the other hand, BoE may increase its Asset Purchase Target.

Earnings were mixed as banks were dragged down by disappointing reports from Credit Suisse and ING. Following its European peers' trend, Credit Suisse [CHGN.CH] reported a net loss which was much wider than the profit expected due to a difficult trading environment which also caused losses in the investment banking unit. ING [INGA.NV] also reported a pretax losses and missed expectations on net due to impairment on Greek government bonds. Board proposed not to pay any dividend. On the other hand, Daimler [DAI.DE] rose as it reported a 39% increase in its profit and exceeded estimates.

Speakers:

Spain Fin Min Guindos commented that the H1 period to be very difficult for Spain compared to year-ago performance but there were no plans for additional tax increases (after a surprise hike in late 2011). Economy might not start to recover until late this year, when unemployment should also peak thus he saw stabilization in H2. Govt remained committed to achieving ambitious deficit-reduction targets this year. The planned Eurogroup meeting today would exert pressure on Greece.

Greece PM Papademos said to be seeking revised 2014 budget targets. Last minute demands said to be complicated the agreement with the EU/IMF/ECB Troika and it was uncertain if Troika deal would be completed ahead of today Eurogroup meeting (schedule for 17:00 GMT)

The LAOS party chief Karatzaferis indicated early Thursday that he was not willing to agree to the new Greek bailout terms at this time due to not having adequate time to study it. Although he did not agree, he did not want to cause any problems and indicated he would keep on supporting it.

Greek labour unions, GSEE and ADEDY, to hold 2-day strike between Feb 10-11th period

German govt official: Sees no decision on Greece at today's Eurogroup meeting in Brussel

South Korea Fin Min Jae-wan commented that Europe should take decisive steps to resolve its debt problems before the Group of 20 leading economies approve a move to boost resources of the IMF

China Commerce Min Chen commented that the January exports probably declined and added that any policy fine-tuning would be supportive of trade. He reiterated the view of maintaining the overall stability of the CNY currency exchange rate

China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) commented that inflation to steadily decline after holiday effects. Pork and vegetable prices would decline after surge due to effects from the holiday and weather. China to steadily increase food supply to help curb prices

Analyst comments on China inflation data and see potential RRR cuts on hold at this time

Austria WIFO: Austria H1 GDP may stagnate

German IFO commented that EMU Q1 economic climate increased to 84.8 v 83.7 prior Q4. It noted that analysts forecasted that EMU monetary policy easing over next 6 months. The economic climate continued to be below the long-term average and it was too early to speak of general economic recovery in EMU, as conditions were weaker in most states, which the exception of Germany. IFO forecasted 2012 inflation averaging 2.3% with inflation outlook lower in most states.

German DIHK Survey saw 2012 GDP growth of 1% with exports rising 3.5%. Overall, companies in Germany remained optimistic about 2012 and saw positive German GDP growth in Q1.

Moodys commented on Indonesia and expressed concern about impact of recent rate cuts on the country's inflationary expectations. Moody's stated that it was odd for the central bank to cut interest rates when domestic demand was robust but added it still had confidence in its central bank policy

UN FAO senior economist commented that it saw the scope for food price increase in Feb due to high energy prices and other external factors

China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that it continued to see int'l payment surplus this year and could not rule out periodic capital outflows as outflow pressures had increased since end of last year. It noted that two-way CNY currency price trend at its initial stage as expectations for a one-way directional path has been broken

Currencies:

The USD remained softer against the European pairs in the session although off its worst levels. The Eurogroup meeting is scheduled to proceed later today after the European equity markets close but unlikely to resolve any issues on Greece.

The EUR/USD probed above the 1.33 handle early on but cautious comments by a German official on Greece tempered some of the recent risk-on appetite.

The EUR/JPY remained below the pivotal 103 level with Euro-buy stop orders rumored to be layered above. Dealers have noted that the cross would likely lead the direction for other euro-related pairs at this time.

The USD/JPY was capped at 77.25 level in the session with various moving averages providing some technical headwinds in the apir.

The GBP remained slightly positive against the greenback ahead of the BOE rate decision. Analysts are looking for the MPC to increase its Asset purchase target by £50B to £325B at today's decision. Better industrial and manufacturing data might provide the basis of a surprise in holding off the expectations and have the BOE keep its powder dry for the time being to assess the global environment and inflation developments.

Political/ In the Papers:

The Irish government published the 2012 Finance Bill with the bulk of the bill aimed at job creation. Notable items include new tax reliefs, not in the budget, to facilitate job creation, and increased mortgage interest relief of 30% for those who purchased homes during 2004-2008 period and 2012. The Minister of Finance Noonan said, "The Budget contained a number of targeted supports for employment for both the foreign direct investment and SME sectors and the bill provides additional details of the support for financial services flagged in December".

Credit ratings agency Moody's said approximately €35B of Irish mortgage debt faces being written down under proposals in the government's personal insolvency legislation. It also sees property prices to decline by an average of 60% from their highs, leaving about 75% of mortgages in negative equity, with debt forgiveness to replace repossession as mortgage lenders try to deal with mortgages that cannot be repaid. The Minister of Finance Noonan replied and said that the draft legislation would not be published until the end of April, and that it was early for a rating agency to make any kind of a call on that. Note that under the government proposals, mortgage debt write-offs have to secure the approval of 75% of mortgage lenders, under a Personal Insolvency Arrangement.

The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard made notes on the rally in corporate bonds which has been largely driven by central bank easing measures. In the article it was reported that some believe that banks may be using ECB funds to buy corporate debt. According to SocGen analyst Suki Mann, investors have been seeking yield, as they are starting to believe that even if there were a default by Greece, such an event could have a muted impact. High-grade yields have declined as some companies are now being seen as safer than governments. In Europe, there was the largest 1-month compression in high-grade debt yields in Jan since records started.

According to a PwC report (entitled 'Precious Plastic'), the average UK household held nearly £8,000 in debt last year, placing it as one of the world's most indebted countries. The report found that in 2011 the average family paid off £355 in unsecured debt with £7.9K left outstanding. For 2012, it sees an additional reduction of £400, although at current rate, it will take almost two decades to pay off the entire amount. A PwC official said, "In addition to this, our credit confidence survey has shown that there is a growing reluctance to borrow in the future and a marked deterioration in confidence about meeting repayments, particularly among 18 to 24-year-olds". The squeeze on household finances is set to continue, according to a separate study, with businesses planning to award average pay rises of just 1.1% this year.

Looking Ahead

6:00 (PT) Portugal Dec Trade Balance: -€ v -€885M prior

6:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Manufacturing Prod. M/M: No est v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.6% prior

6:00 (PL)) Poland to sell Bonds

6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell CZK9.0B in 6-month Bills

7:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and increase the Asset Purchase Target (APT) by £50B to £325B

7:45 (EU) ECB Interest rate Decision: Expecte to leave the Main 7-day Refi Rate unchanged at 1.00%

8:30 (CA) Canada Dec New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior

8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 370Ke v 367K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.50Me v 3.437M prior

8:30 (EU) ECB Monthly press conference

9:00 (MX) Mexico Dec Final Trade Balance: No est v $ prior

9:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Prices M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.8% prior; Core CPI M/M: No est v 0.5% prior

9:30 (US) Commercial Paper outstanding w/e Feb 8th: No est v $800M prior

10:00 (US) Dec Wholesale Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.1% prior

10:00 (UK) Jan NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v 0.1% prior

10:30 (US) Weekly Natural Gas Inventory data

12:00 (EU) Eurogroup meeting in Brussels

12:00 (US) CBO Director Elmendorf

13:00 (DE) German Bundesbank member Nagel

13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $16B in 30-Year Bonds

FX Thoughts for the Week

R: 0.9200 / 0.9250-60
S: 0.9110 / 0.9075-58

Dollar-Swiss is continuing to find Resistance near 0.9250. The 21-Month-MA (currently at 0.9261) held well last week. However, the break below 0.9100 did not extend strongly further on the downside and the pair bounced back sharply from its low of 0.9089. On the downside 0.9058 will be an important Support level to be watched for the week. The pair needs to see a strong break below this Support for further downmove to happen. Last two weeks candles are suggesting sideways move for the pair. However, the monthly and the weekly charts on the whole are still looking week broadly and a strong break below 0.9058 could trigger further sharp fall to 0.8900-8850.

Limit Sell Order:

Sell USD 10K at 0.9250, SL 0.9330, TP 0.9065

Trade ideas for the week:

1) Sell on a break below 0.9058.

R: 1.5800 / 1.5929
S: 1.5700-5978 / 1.5650

Cable tested its 200-DMA Resistance (currently at 1.5924) and has come off sharply from its high of 1.5929 last week. There is good Support near 1.5700 and then significant Supports seen at 1.5678 (21-Week-MA) and then at 1.5642 on the monthly chart. Having said this the current downmove can extend further to 1.5650 this week if it fails to rise past the immediate Resistance at 1.5800. The chances of further fall below 1.5650 will have to be seen. We expect this Support at 1.5642 to hold in its first test and a bounce back to 1.5750-5800 is possible from there. Also the bounce back move can extend further to test the 200-DMA Resistance once again. 1.5800 will be an important level to be watched for. A strong rise past this level is now needed to ease the downside pressure and a failure to break above this Resistance would increase the downside pressure on the pair.

Limit Buy Order:

Buy GBP 10K at 1.5655, SL 1.5575, TP 1.5780

R: 1.0700 / 1.0735-50 / 1.0800-25
S: 1.0600-580 / 1.0550 / 1.0500

Aussie saw an intraweek break above its important 1.0735-50 Resistance region following the surprise move by the RBA to leave the rates unchaged against the market expectation for a 25bps cut. But, however, it failed to see a strong rise past 1.0800 and fell sharply from its high of 1.0844. Now it has bounced back well above 1.0700 once again easing the downside pressure. Immediate Resistance is seen a 1.0770 and a failure to rise past this Resistance could keep the pair pressured on the downside adn the downmove can extend further towards 1.0600-580 on a break below the immediate Support in 1.0700-680 region. Note that the 21-DMA Support is currently at 1.0604. We expect a bounce back from this near 1.0600. On the other hand, if a strong break below the 21-DMA is seen during the week, then the downmove can extend further to 1.0550-00. We will have to wait and see.

Trade ideas for the week:

1) Watch 1.0600-580 Support region and buy into the bounce.

Forex Technical Analysis

Current level - 1.3262

Friday's sell-off broke below 1.3230 intraday support, dipping to 1.3160 break out level. I think, that the mentioned slide is corrective one and the outlook remains bullish for a break through 1.3321, towards 1.3450, en route to 1.3540. The intraday bias is positive as well, with a crucial support at 1.3210.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

Current level - 77.65

The upmove here is absolutely intact and the pair is heading for a test of 78.25 major resistance. Initial minor intraday support is projected at 77.54, followed by the major one at 77.25.

Current level - 1.5799

Friday's sell-off bottomed at 1.5730 in a precise test of the crucial area, built in the beginning of last week. Although current bias is still negative within the descending channel from 1.5930, I do favor a break beyond 1.5850 , towards 1.5980, en route to 1.6120. Initial intraday support can be spotted at 1.5760.

Risk Rally Getting Long In The Tooth?

Looking at the week ahead, we ponder the potential for this risk rally to finally face a consolidation. The Bank of Japan is on tap tonight and may have more to say than usual. US retail sales data is up tomorrow.

EU, Greece, and all that

While Greece has played 'Deal or No Deal?' with the markets over the last week, we must remember that the threat here is for continued social destabilization in Greece and the prospect for Greek elections, possibly in the early April time frame. Please see our Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen's piece on Greece and the Euro Zone. Meanwhile, the awkward EU/ECB framework has escaped any streamlining despite the recent fiscal compact and the open question is how the Euro Zone copes after the ECB's next LTRO at the end of this month. And with French elections on tap for late April, we may be entering an awkward political limbo for a time until the victor of that contest is known. (It appears Hollande is the sure winner, but he has promised renegotiation of the fiscal compact that was agreed at the late January meeting.)

Markets this week

The risk rally is trying to slam back into full-speed ahead mode on the news of Greece finally agreeing to the bailout deal, but there are risks for the rally as it has gotten very long in the tooth. A couple of warning signs can be found in the likes of a divergent VIX (more pronounced than when we mentioned a similar development a couple of weeks back), very complacent sentiment readings, and light market volume. As well, economic surprise indices, like the one maintained by Citigroup, have yet to show signs of significant deterioration, something they nearly always do from the kinds of elevated levels we have seen in recent weeks.

Interest rates

Despite the strong rally in risk (which may in large part be driven by the perceived prospects for infinite quantitative easing...) the German Bund and US 10-year remain anchored to the 2.00 per cent yield area – can anything shake this market? The two interesting scenarios for bonds from here are further strong data that erodes the prospects for more QE or very weak data that tests whether the market will continue to pile into bonds as a safe haven.

FX

EURUSD is trying to decide whether the squeeze to the 1.3300+ area was enough for now or if there is more ground to take back if . Have we lost sight of the degree to which the ECB has exploded its balance sheet and the next tests that await the Euro regardless of whether Greece revives or disappears into the Adriatic? Other big tests this week are in the JPY crosses as the MoF has been rattling its cage of late on its ability to intervene and with the BoJ up tonight. After a run down to the bottom of the range two weeks ago, last week saw the pair whipping back higher as interest rates rose. Intervention and the direction for long government yields are the two keys for the JPY this week.

AUDUSD tried above its long term resistance level at 1.0760 last week and will continue to correlate with risk appetite this week and beyond. Watch the Australian employment report Thursday. It is clear that the USD and JPY are the most sensitive currencies (correlated negatively) to further upside in risk appetite and the Aussie and Kiwi are the most. AUDCAD and NZDCAD are at interesting and excessive valuations and some traders may look at these pairs for steering clear of the US dollar in looking for a consolidation in risk appetite this week.

Commodities

Brent crude has rallied close to its highest levels expressed in pounds and Euros and is likely beginning to erode demand, something that might become increasingly evident as the bitter European cold eases further this week. Gold and silver may remain stuck in a range – interesting that last week's announcement of a reduction in margin failed to spark a rally – and quite the opposite. The Q4 SEC filings for the GLD, the world's largest physical gold ETF, will garner plenty of attention.

Tuesday

Bank of Japan meeting – considering the terrible Q4 GDP readings published on Monday, the BoJ may move to stimulate the economy further with additional QE measures. There is also considerable noise on the potential for the BoJ to become more explicit in its determination to beat deflation. Consider this Reuters article

UK Jan. CPI/RPI – The Bank of England expects that these measures of inflation will fall sharply in the near term. A fall in energy prices would certainly help them do so even more quickly.

Germany Feb. ZEW – a survey of expectations for economic growth. It bounced very strongly in January – but from near record lows. The bounce is expected to extend strongly for February

US Jan. Advanced Retail Sales – the December numbers were very weak, could increasing gift certificate usage from the holiday season provide a pop or is the US consumer tapped out?

Wednesday

New Zealand Jan. Non-resident bond holdings – considering the interest in in investing in New Zealand debt, the fall in this statistic to new lows since 2004 hardly makes sense – what are those capital flows buying in New Zealand?

UK Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report – has lost its import in recent years as a fall in inflation always seems around the corner. At least this time it appears to be finally happening.

US Feb. Empire Manufacturing – the strength in the US manufacturing surveys in January rated a big surprise – let's see if mean reversion sets in for February

US Fed FOMC minutes of Jan 24-25 meeting – always searching for clues on what triggers QE3 or delays is, but we know that the Bernanke Fed is all about

Thursday

Australia Jan. Employment Change and Unemployment rate – the market doesn't seem particularly pre-occupied with the domestic economy in Australia as the Aussie trades on risk appetite and commodity moves, but at some point, domestic matters will matter and the employment report in December was terrible.

Sweden Riksbank Interest Rate – looking for another cut to bring rate to 1.50% as EURSEK edges to its lowest levels in more than a decade. The idea that SEK is a potential safe haven hasn't been tested by a serious sell-off in risk.

US Jan. PPI – the core PPI ran up to its highest level since 2009 in December and the market seems to be betting that the Fed's complacency on inflation is justified. The market is looking for a considerable drop to +2.7% YoY for Jan. from 3.0% in Dec.

US Weekly Jobless Claims / US Feb. Philadelphia Fed Survey / US Housing Starts and Building Permits – these all looked good the last time around

Friday

UK Jan. Retail Sales - expected weak.

Canada Jan. CPI – the core CPI, unlike in the US, has been easing lower for a few months now

US Jan. CPI – the core CPI in the US has risen to its highest level since late 2008 (currently 2.2% and expected at the same for Jan. data.) and the Fed must hope that it falls soon to retain credibility on inflation.

Markets Upbeat After Greek Austerity Vote

Events from Greece are still dominating the airwaves and FX positioning. The latest headlines indicate that the vote in Athens on the €130 billion package has passed in a 199-74 count. The next step, before any Troika cash is released, is for the austerity plan to be accepted by the EU in a Euro-zone FinMin meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. In the last few days, Greece's ruling party officials made an impassionate plea to Greek parliament hoping to ensure that this austerity bill was accepted. The finance minister called into question the euro participation while PM Papademos stated 'The social costs that come with these measures are contained in comparison to the economic and social catastrophe that will follow if we don't adopt them.' The news that the agreement passed will lower the risk of a disorderly default but we suspect that Greece and Europe are far from being out of the redzone. But for today, risk firmed on the positive result. Asia's regional indices were higher which pushed USD lower. The Nikkei was up 0.58% and Hang Seng 0.50%, however, in late session trading Shanghais slipped marginally into the red. EURUSD was able to rally of Friday's lows at 1.3160 and rally to 1.3284. But the big story remains commodity and EM currencies which continue to make strong moves and has many understandably predicating a correction. First there is the overriding risk of executions which currently, the Greek administers have come up significantly lacking. In fact, in the last 18 months the original austerity promises have not been executed. And this lack of political will to implement cuts in a system where cronyism rules will probably send Greece back looking for EU handouts by year's end. This fear is also a concern in Brussels, as guarantees that the reforms will be implemented regardless who wins the next general elections must be provided. In addition there is only a very small opening for Greek policy makers to actually execute necessary measures needed to ensure cash is ready for the late march deadline. Greece must make its final debt swap offer to private-sector bondholders by this Friday and there is little evidence that an agreement has been reacted. Clearly there are plenty of downside risks in fiscal consolidation measures which have become glaringly obvious by watching the social unrest in Greece. However, the general calls for a risk pullback seem to be a reaction to the recent bullish run of risks correlated trades and natural inclination for mean reversion, than real fundamentals. With the Fed, BoE, ECB injecting massive liquidity into the system, the ECB LTRO decreasing the possibility of a tail like event and global growth stabilizing we suspect that buying risk continues to be the key trade.

00:00 USD Obama to release his 2013 budget proposal00:00 EUR Greek Deadline to submit a final debt swap offer13:00 EUR Coene Speaking14:30 EUR Merkel & Schauble pc16:45 CAD Duncan speaking21:45 AUD RBA's Debelle speaking

EurUsd EURUSD price action continues to make us dizzy, as the pair chops around between 1.3100 1.3300. Break of 1.3230 and 1.3289 resistances exposes further extension. On the topside, resistance stands at 1.3322 (9th Feb high), 1.3386 (12th Dec high 11) then 1.3548 (2nd Dec 12 high). Initial support stands at 1.3156 (10th Feb low), 1.3089 (7th Feb low), 1.2931 (25th Jan low), 1.2839 (19th Jan Low), 1.2588 (24th Aug low) then a lot of noise till 1.2154 (29th June low).

GbpUsd The feel good attitude has carried over to the cable. The pair made a clean break of 1.5885 and bullish tone looks to challenge resistance at 1.5928/32 (200d MA & 15th Nov high 11) then not much till 1.6167 (31st Oct high 11). Minor support located at 1.5730 (10th Feb low), 1.5699/07 (31st & 1st Jan Low), 1.5654 (30th Jan low), 1.5517/34 (23rd & 25th Jan low), then 1.5416 (19th Jan low).

UsdJpy Rise in US yields and decreased risk aversion have given the pair new lease on life. Bullish break of bearish trend ceiling located at 76.30, suggest further upside. The move should face minor resistance at 77.81 (10th Feb high), 78.29 (30th Nov 12 high), 79.53 (31st Oct intervention high), 80.24 (prior intervention high) then 81.48 (8th July high). On the downside support should come into play at 77.44 (daily cloud cover top), 76.49 (5th Feb low), 76.05 (2nd Feb low) next support will come into play around then 75.35 (31st Oct low).

UsdChf Recent price action has slightly reduces bearish tone but downside remains probable. We seem to be looking at further consolidation between 0.9103 and 0.9140. Resistance is located at 0.9265 (7th Feb high), 0.9396 (23rd Jan high), 0.9596 (9th Jan high), 0.9782 (11th Jan high) then 0.9951 (61.8 Fibo retracement). Next support is located at 0.9103 (13th Feb low), 0.9043 (30th Nov 11 low), 0.8953 (11th Nov 11 low).

S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot

GBP/USD Enters US Session Threatening Resistance Factors

The GBP/USD has pulled back right before reaching the 1.5728 pivot. The USD pared gains across the board. The 1H chart shows that the pullback brought the market back to the 200 hour simple moving average as well as a declining trendline. The RSI is also back to 60, which acted as resistance while the bearish momentum has been maintained. If the US session holds the GBP/USD under 1.5830, it will be a very strong sign of bearish continuation as it would show respect to the head and shoulder.

However, it should noted that the market has been in an uptrend, and the bearish outlook starts only with a very short-term one that so far entails about a 200-pip drop from 1.5927. Price breaking above 1.5950 and 1H RSI breaking above 60, should suggest bullish continuation, or at least a retest of the 1.59 pivot or 1.5927 high.

The 4H chart shows that despite the market falling almost 200 pips and breaking below the rising trendline, the RSI reading still does not show a loss of bullish momentum as it bounces off 40. If the 1H RSI rises back above 60 and then 70, while the 4H RSI also pushes above 60, we are likely in a bullish continuation. If the 4H RSI is contained below 60, we are likely in some sideways consolidation. Either way, only a break below 40 in the 4H RSI along with a dip below 1.5727 should open up the bearish targets 1.5662 and 1.5580.

Greece Steps Back From The Brink

As protestors stalked the streets of Athens, lawmakers managed to pass austerity measures that are necessary to release the EUR 130n of fresh bailout funds that are the only thing between Greece and default.

When the vote passed this set off a relief rally, EURUSD is back above 1.3260 and European stocks have opened higher. The positive sentiment was given a boost when German Finance Minister Schaueble said that Greece 'will be saved one way or another', and now investors wait for the Eurogroup Finance Ministers to ratify the next bout of bailout funds when they hold another emergency meeting on Wednesday.

Until the finance ministers rubber stamp the bailout deal then we won't know for sure that Greece is out of the woods. To release the funds then the ministers need to be confident that Greece's political leaders will apply the austerity measures post general elections that are due to take place in April. We still need to get confirmation this will happen and that Greece's politicians won't just give lip service to European demands before reneging on tough decisions post the election.

So there are still many stumbling blocks, which could keep the markets range bound in the next couple of days. EURUSD may find it hard to break above 1.3320/ 30 - the high from last week - until we hear from Europe's finance ministers on Wednesday, so expect some choppy ranges.

Added to that the focus of attention may now be on the PSI discussions. On Friday rating agency S&P said that a selective default rating would be applied to Greece if Collective Action Clauses (CACs) are applied to private sector bond holdings - essentially forcing the holders of Greek debt to take losses on their bonds against their will. The head of the IIF - the negotiator for the private sector - called on the ECB to take losses on their holdings and for Greek lawmakers to pass austerity measures necessary to receive the next tranche of bailout funds. Without the bailout funds then the private bond holders the IIF represents would not get their money back when a major redemption is due on March 20th.

So as the PSI discussions move into their final leg there is much room for upset so this 'recovery' rally is fragile and could be easily disturbed.

The rating agencies reminded us that Europe's problems are far from over. S&P downgraded 34 Italian financial firms on the back of increased funding problems late on Friday. The rating agencies might be behind the curve as the ECB has stepped in to support the banks with its LTRO loan plan, however banks that rely on their central bank for finance because no one else will lend to them pose an enhanced credit risk and the S&P's action is a reminder that all is not as it should be in the European financial sector.

The absence of economic data today means that headline risk is even more pronounced that usual. Right now headlines are fairly positive, but if there is any sign that PSI negotiations will end in CAC's then sentiment could change.

The market may not be looking at the bigger picture right now, but risks remain. The latest tussle for bailout funds has been the worst yet. Going forward there is no more room for fiscal slippage in Greece, yet that is what is likely to happen - we have seen in t\he past that austerity is difficult to implement in Greece's extremely fractured financial system. How many more weekends can we have like this past one before either Greece or the Eurozone or both think that it's not worth saving the union in its current form and Greek exit becomes imminent?

But the markets aren't concentrating on that right now. The euro, the Aussie, stocks and Europe's peripheral bonds are all moving higher in unison today. However, we would note that we are approaching some key resistance levels: 1.33 in EURUSD, 1.0800 in AUDUSD, and 1,370/80 in SPX 500, so beware some profit-taking at these levels. US stock futures are also pointing to a healthy open later.

We need to get more clarity on the PSI discussions and overcome the hurdle of the Eurogroup finance ministers meeting first before we think EURUSD can target 1.35 in a meaningful way, however the recovery in the recovery in the euro this morning suggests that there are bulls out there and dips in the single currency vs. the dollar seem to be short-lived.